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2024-12-13 04:53:56

Barclays: There is a high degree of uncertainty in the US interest rate forecast in 2025. Based on the baseline prospect of a soft landing of the US economy in 2025, Barclays interest rate strategists predict that the yields of 2-year and 10-year government bonds will close at 3.75% and 4.25% respectively next year, and the yield difference between 2s10s will widen by about 50 basis points. According to the report, interest rate cuts should push interest rates down, while longer-term yields are under pressure from factors such as rising neutral interest rates, high interest rate volatility, inflation risk premium and net bond expansion. But the incoming Trump administration will bring "great uncertainty".US Secretary of State Blinken: The United States welcomes the statement made by Syrian rebel leaders on the formation of an inclusive government, but the real test will be their commitment to this. The United States has a clear interest in avoiding Syria's secession, terrorism and extremism.According to several media reports, Damascus, the capital of Syria, and Homs, the central city, were attacked by air on the evening of the 9th.


The monetary policy is moderately loose. Many chief brokers actively interpret "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment". On December 9, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. The meeting released many new signals, such as the change of monetary policy from "flexible and moderate" to "moderately loose". In an interview, a number of brokerage chiefs believe that liquidity support may increase in the future to better serve the development of the real economy. (Securities Times)Barclays: There is a high degree of uncertainty in the US interest rate forecast in 2025. Based on the baseline prospect of a soft landing of the US economy in 2025, Barclays interest rate strategists predict that the yields of 2-year and 10-year government bonds will close at 3.75% and 4.25% respectively next year, and the yield difference between 2s10s will widen by about 50 basis points. According to the report, interest rate cuts should push interest rates down, while longer-term yields are under pressure from factors such as rising neutral interest rates, high interest rate volatility, inflation risk premium and net bond expansion. But the incoming Trump administration will bring "great uncertainty".The annual strategy of brokers in 2025 will present "three major consensuses". At the end of recent years, the annual strategies of major brokers in 2025 will be held intensively, focusing on the interpretation of the new year's market, the market trend next year and the discussion and judgment of the allocation direction. Generally speaking, brokers have shown a "consensus" in three major directions. The first consensus is that it is generally believed that the A-share market is expected to become an important place for global capital allocation. In this direction, Chinese and foreign institutions have reached a consensus. The second consensus is to give optimistic expectations for the A-share market in 2025. The confidence of the organization's optimistic expectations lies in the fact that the market sentiment has obviously recovered under the boost of a series of positive policies this year, and there is still room for boosting in the medium and long term perspective. The third consensus is reflected in the direction of industry allocation. The new quality productivity based on semiconductors and computing power, as well as the policy themes based on mergers and acquisitions and market value management, have become a common optimistic track for many brokers. (Securities Daily)


US Secretary of State Blinken: The United States has a clear interest in avoiding Syrian division and the export of terrorism and extremism.Apollo's flagship private equity fund aims to raise $25 billion.Altman, CEO of OpenAI: It is expected that new products in Europe will be delayed.

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